Conference Champions
ACC
Coastal-Virginia Tech over North Carolina
Atlantic-Clemson over Florida State
Championship Game-Virginia Tech over Clemson
Big East
Rutgers over South Florida
Big Ten
Penn State over Ohio State
Big 12
South-Texas over Oklahoma
North-Nebraska over Kansas
Championship Game-Texas over Nebraska
Pac-10
Cal over USC
SEC
East-Florida over Georgia
West-Ole Miss over Alabama
Championship Game-Florida over Ole Miss
BCS Bowl Games
BCS National Championship Game
Texas(13-0) over Virginia Tech(13-0)
Rose Bowl
Cal(11-1) over Penn State(10-2)
Fiesta Bowl
USC(10-2) over Oklahoma(10-2)
Sugar Bowl
Florida(12-1) over Notre Dame(10-2)
Orange Bowl
Boise State(12-0) over Rutgers(10-2)
Biggest Upset of 2009
September 12th: Houston over Oklahoma State
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Friday, August 14, 2009
What are the Eagles doing?
Count me as someone who does not like what the Eagles have done this offseason. The moves certainly look good on paper and they've upgraded their talent but the problem is that I'm not sure about the team chemistry. They replace both starting offensive tackles, Jon Runyan and Tra Thomas, who have been stallwarts on this team. While their replacements, Jason Peters and Stacy Andrews, may be upgrades talent-wise, I have to question as to whether or not there will be any issues as far as chemistry is concerned. That could be a huge as chemistry along the offensive line is extremely important. Also, the signing of Michael Vick may add some new wrinkles to the offense(i.e. wildcat) but this can't be Donovan McNabb's pysche especially after his much publicized benching at halftime of a 10-7 game. If Kevin Kolb hadn't been so horrible in the 2nd half of that game McNabb might not be an Eagle right now. Now, the Eagles think it'll be a good idea to bring in Michael Vick, a former Pro Bowler, to be his backup? As soon as he has a bad 6 quarters and Vick is semi-effective in whatever role he plays, those rabid Philly fans will be calling for McNabb's benching and if last year meant anything, they might get what they wish for. Michael Vick is going to be paid for $1.6 million this year and the option for next year is over $5 million. That's not the salary of a backup QB/Wildcat QB. Now to the defense. The D took two huge blows when they lost longtime D-Coordinator Jim Johnson to cancer(condolences out to the Johnson family)and LB Stewart Bradley to IR(Torn Achilles). They also lose Pro Bowl stallwarts in the defensive backfield, S Brian Dawkins(who has been the heart and soul of this defense for years) and CB Lito Sheppard. All that for a team that finished with 9 wins in the regular season last year in a division that is loaded along with the overall improvement of the NFC and I'm not sure that we will be seeing the Eagles playing in January this year.
Monday, August 10, 2009
NFL Teams on the Decline
Miami Dolphins-Last year, the Fins went 11-5 and won the AFC East. However, a lot of things went their way for that to happen. They remained extremely healthy(just 8 players ended the season on IR)which can't be expected to happen again. The Patriots had a down year(11-5 which is down for them)with Tom Brady being out for the year. Brady is healthy and ready to go in 2009 and so are the Patriots. Miami feasted on a weak schedule last year as they faced arguably the two worst divisions in the NFL in the AFC and NFC West while this year they face arguably the two best divisions in the NFL in the AFC and NFC South. The Dolphins tied for the fewest giveaways last season(13) and led the league in turnover ratio(+17) by 4. That's going to change at least a little bit in 2009. That'll be a big difference in close games which they thrived in last year(7-2 in games decided by 7 points or less). I'm predicting the Fins will end up with a win total closer to their win total in 2007 than in 2008.
Arizona Cardinals-Arizona was last years Cinderella after reaching the Super Bowl thanks to a magical playoff run. However, what people tend to forget is that the Cardinals finished the season just 9-7 and made the playoffs mainly because their division was a joke. The Cardinals beat only 1 team that made the playoffs last year and that was the Dolphins before the "Wildcat" offense surfaced. In fact Arizona was outscored 284 to 154 in 8 games(2-6) against teams with winning records last year. The Cards feasted on their division, the NFC West. They went a whopping 6-0 in divisional games last year and they needed to because if they had lost one of their games against the 49ers they wouldn't have made the playoffs. I expect Arizona to lose at least 2 games within the division next year as the 49ers should be improved under Mike Singletary and the Seahawks will be much better for reasons I stated in my "NFL Teams on the Rise" blog. I'm going to predict that the Arizona Cardinals will have a losing season and not make the playoffs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers-The Buccaneers started out 2008 9-3 and seemed like a lock for the playoffs. However, with 4 games remaining and needing to win just one of them the defense fell apart down the stretch and the Bucs lost the final four games of the season and missed out on the playoffs. That resulted in the firing of former Super Bowl winning HC Jon Gruden and not resigning starting QB Jeff Garcia. They also lost longtime defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin when he left to join his son at the University of Tennessee and released a lot of veterans, most notably LB Derrick Brooks and RB Warrick Dunn. That being said, I actually like this team a lot more than most do. They have one of the best offensive lines in football and that combined with one of the better stable of running backs should mean a very productive running game. Whoever wins the QB battle(Luke McCown, Byron Leftwich, Josh Freeman)will be solid thanks to the aforementioned strong running game and a solid receiving corp led by Antonio Bryant and Kellen Winslow Jr. The defense won't be as good as it was for the first 12 games of 2008 but it also won't be as bad as it was for the final 4. Unfortunately, Tampa Bay faces an absolutely brutal schedule as they face just two teams that had losing seasons in 2008 and one of them(Green Bay) is being picked by many(including myself)to have a big turnaround in 2009. That combined with the uncertainty of leadership with their head coach, Raheem Morris, leads me to think that Tampa Bay will be good but lose a lot of close games in 2009 and end up with a Top 5 pick in the NFL draft next April.
Arizona Cardinals-Arizona was last years Cinderella after reaching the Super Bowl thanks to a magical playoff run. However, what people tend to forget is that the Cardinals finished the season just 9-7 and made the playoffs mainly because their division was a joke. The Cardinals beat only 1 team that made the playoffs last year and that was the Dolphins before the "Wildcat" offense surfaced. In fact Arizona was outscored 284 to 154 in 8 games(2-6) against teams with winning records last year. The Cards feasted on their division, the NFC West. They went a whopping 6-0 in divisional games last year and they needed to because if they had lost one of their games against the 49ers they wouldn't have made the playoffs. I expect Arizona to lose at least 2 games within the division next year as the 49ers should be improved under Mike Singletary and the Seahawks will be much better for reasons I stated in my "NFL Teams on the Rise" blog. I'm going to predict that the Arizona Cardinals will have a losing season and not make the playoffs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers-The Buccaneers started out 2008 9-3 and seemed like a lock for the playoffs. However, with 4 games remaining and needing to win just one of them the defense fell apart down the stretch and the Bucs lost the final four games of the season and missed out on the playoffs. That resulted in the firing of former Super Bowl winning HC Jon Gruden and not resigning starting QB Jeff Garcia. They also lost longtime defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin when he left to join his son at the University of Tennessee and released a lot of veterans, most notably LB Derrick Brooks and RB Warrick Dunn. That being said, I actually like this team a lot more than most do. They have one of the best offensive lines in football and that combined with one of the better stable of running backs should mean a very productive running game. Whoever wins the QB battle(Luke McCown, Byron Leftwich, Josh Freeman)will be solid thanks to the aforementioned strong running game and a solid receiving corp led by Antonio Bryant and Kellen Winslow Jr. The defense won't be as good as it was for the first 12 games of 2008 but it also won't be as bad as it was for the final 4. Unfortunately, Tampa Bay faces an absolutely brutal schedule as they face just two teams that had losing seasons in 2008 and one of them(Green Bay) is being picked by many(including myself)to have a big turnaround in 2009. That combined with the uncertainty of leadership with their head coach, Raheem Morris, leads me to think that Tampa Bay will be good but lose a lot of close games in 2009 and end up with a Top 5 pick in the NFL draft next April.
Sunday, August 9, 2009
NFL Teams on the Rise
Green Bay Packers-The Pack were 13-3 a couple years ago but fell to 6-10 last season. However, 7 of those losses were by just 4 points or less. The defense didn't play up to expectations last season so they brought in Dom Capers to run the defense. His 3-4 defense is going to cause havoc and make last years 20th ranked defense a top 10 defense in 2009. Green Bay is going to win the NFC North with double digit wins this season.
Cincinnati Bengals-The Bengals were a mere 4-11-1 last year mainly because the offense scored more than 20 points just twice and was held to 10 points or less 7 times. However, a lot of their offensive woes can be attributed to Carson Palmer missing most of the season. Palmer will be back this season and joining him in the backfield will be Cedric Benson who came on strong at the end of the season. A defense that improved to 12th in the league under the tutelage of defensive coordinator Don Zimmer adds former USC standout LB Rey Maualuga and former GT star DE Michael Johnson. Cincinnati will be in the playoff mix late in the season and get 9 or 10 wins in 2009.
Seattle Seahawks-Seattle finished 4-12 in 2008 thanks in part to a rash of injuries including QB Matt Hasselbeck and almost all of their WR's. The Seahawks are going to be much healthier in 2009. New coach Jim Mora Jr. will be looking to prove that he shouldn't have been fired in Atlanta even after he took the Falcons to the NFC Championship Game in his first year. The passing game will be very much improved with the return of Hasselbeck, the addition of TJ Houshmandzadeh and drafting of WR Deon Butler(Penn State), and continued development of 2nd year stud TE John Carlson. The defense is going to be improved with the additions of DT Corey Redding and drafting of LB Aaron Curry(who will be the defensive rookie of the year). The Seahawks will win an extremely weak NFC West(Arizona won it last year with a 9-7 record)and have a winning season.
Cincinnati Bengals-The Bengals were a mere 4-11-1 last year mainly because the offense scored more than 20 points just twice and was held to 10 points or less 7 times. However, a lot of their offensive woes can be attributed to Carson Palmer missing most of the season. Palmer will be back this season and joining him in the backfield will be Cedric Benson who came on strong at the end of the season. A defense that improved to 12th in the league under the tutelage of defensive coordinator Don Zimmer adds former USC standout LB Rey Maualuga and former GT star DE Michael Johnson. Cincinnati will be in the playoff mix late in the season and get 9 or 10 wins in 2009.
Seattle Seahawks-Seattle finished 4-12 in 2008 thanks in part to a rash of injuries including QB Matt Hasselbeck and almost all of their WR's. The Seahawks are going to be much healthier in 2009. New coach Jim Mora Jr. will be looking to prove that he shouldn't have been fired in Atlanta even after he took the Falcons to the NFC Championship Game in his first year. The passing game will be very much improved with the return of Hasselbeck, the addition of TJ Houshmandzadeh and drafting of WR Deon Butler(Penn State), and continued development of 2nd year stud TE John Carlson. The defense is going to be improved with the additions of DT Corey Redding and drafting of LB Aaron Curry(who will be the defensive rookie of the year). The Seahawks will win an extremely weak NFC West(Arizona won it last year with a 9-7 record)and have a winning season.
Friday, August 7, 2009
My Thoughts on the USA Today Preseason Top 25
Overrated
#5 Alabama: The Tide are definitely a top 25 team but I think more in the range of 10-17. 'Bama boasts a top 5 defense led by massive NT Terrance "Mount" Cody, LB Rolando McClain, and CB Javier Arenas but the offense will not be as consistent as it was in 2008. Last year, the Crimson Tide had arguably the best offensive line in the country but they lose three starters including All-Americans at the two most important O-line positions, left tackle(Andre Smith) and center(Antoine Caldwell). Remember how they played in the bowl game against Utah just without Smith? They allowed 8 sacks, which was as many as they had allowed the previous 7 games combined, to a Utah team that came in with only 21 sacks on the season. Also replacing senior John Parker Wilson at QB will be hard. The numbers may go up with Greg McElroy as far as yards and touchdowns are concerned but his inexperience combined with inexperienced protection will equal more interceptions than Wilson threw last year(8).
#14 Oregon: This Oregon Ducks team is not a top 25 team. In fact, I see them more as a borderline top 40 team. The skill positions are strong with QB Jeremiah Masoli, RB LeGarrette Blount, and TE Ed Dickson but they return just one starter along the offensive and defensive lines. The secondary loses both Patrick Chung and Jarius Byrd to the NFL. However, the biggest loss for the Ducks will be long time head coach Mike Belotti to retirement. Former OC Chip Kelly is well-qualified but unproven.
#18 Utah: I do not understand why the Utes are in the preseason top 25 at all. They return only three starters on the offense and have to replace QB Brian Johnson. A defense that produced only 29 sacks(and 8 of them came against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl when the Tide were without starting LT Andre Smith)has to replace DE Paul Kruger, who was a 2nd round pick(and projected as a possible late first rounder), and both starting cornerbacks including Sean Smith, who was a 3rd round pick(and projected as a possible late first rounder). This team will get 8 wins and make it to a bowl game but mainly because they are in a weak Mountain-West conference and will not even be a top 40 team, let alone #18.
Underrated
#7 Virginia Tech: I know what you're thinking, "How can a team ranked #7 be underrated?". Well, for those of you who haven't read my preview for the Hokies this season, I predicted for Tech to go undefeated in the regular season and end up in the national title game. Virginia Tech is stacked and doesn't really have question marks at any position which I can't say about a lot of the teams ahead of them(Ohio State: replacing LB James Lauranitis, CB Malcolm Jenkins, Beanie Wells, and their top two WR's, Alabama: see earlier mention, USC: who's the QB?, Oklahoma: replacing 4 starters on the offensive line).
#23 Notre Dame: I think that they're at the right spot if I were picking teams only based on how good I think they are but I'm also picking the teams based on where I think they will finish(hence why I don't place Penn State in the overrated section). Notre Dame's schedule is extremely easy. There are 8 should-wins on that schedule and that's not even including a game at Stanford(who didn't make a bowl last year). The Irish will get 9 or 10 wins, make it to a BCS bowl game that they don't belong in and get throttled by a much better team.
UR South Florida: South Florida is the most talented team in the Big East which is down this year. They have the best offensive player(QB Matt Grothe) and the best defensive player(George Selvie) in the conference. New DC Joe Tresey, who filled the same position at Cincinatti last year, will help this defense create more turnovers with the help of Selvie and 4 star recruit DE Ryne Giddens getting pressure on opposing QBs. USF will get 9 or 10 wins next year and who that they deserve to be in the top 25.
UR Michigan State: OK, yes the Spartans lose QB Brian Hoyer and RB Javon Ringer but both positions could actually be better in 2009. Whoever wins the QB battle(either Kirk Cousins or Keith Nichol) will have experience in the offense and should be solid passing the ball while adding an element that Hoyer didn't have, the ability to run the ball(in fact HC Mark D'Antonio is considering adding some option to the playbook. The 4 player stable of backs should be able to improve upon Ringers rather pedestrian 4.2 ypc last year. The defense will be loaded, led by LB Greg Jones who is the preseason Big Ten Defensive POY. The secondary will be fantastic and the line will be rock solid, led by star DE Trevor Anderson.
Other Underrated Teams: Clemson, Miami(Fl), Kansas, Illinois, NC State
#5 Alabama: The Tide are definitely a top 25 team but I think more in the range of 10-17. 'Bama boasts a top 5 defense led by massive NT Terrance "Mount" Cody, LB Rolando McClain, and CB Javier Arenas but the offense will not be as consistent as it was in 2008. Last year, the Crimson Tide had arguably the best offensive line in the country but they lose three starters including All-Americans at the two most important O-line positions, left tackle(Andre Smith) and center(Antoine Caldwell). Remember how they played in the bowl game against Utah just without Smith? They allowed 8 sacks, which was as many as they had allowed the previous 7 games combined, to a Utah team that came in with only 21 sacks on the season. Also replacing senior John Parker Wilson at QB will be hard. The numbers may go up with Greg McElroy as far as yards and touchdowns are concerned but his inexperience combined with inexperienced protection will equal more interceptions than Wilson threw last year(8).
#14 Oregon: This Oregon Ducks team is not a top 25 team. In fact, I see them more as a borderline top 40 team. The skill positions are strong with QB Jeremiah Masoli, RB LeGarrette Blount, and TE Ed Dickson but they return just one starter along the offensive and defensive lines. The secondary loses both Patrick Chung and Jarius Byrd to the NFL. However, the biggest loss for the Ducks will be long time head coach Mike Belotti to retirement. Former OC Chip Kelly is well-qualified but unproven.
#18 Utah: I do not understand why the Utes are in the preseason top 25 at all. They return only three starters on the offense and have to replace QB Brian Johnson. A defense that produced only 29 sacks(and 8 of them came against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl when the Tide were without starting LT Andre Smith)has to replace DE Paul Kruger, who was a 2nd round pick(and projected as a possible late first rounder), and both starting cornerbacks including Sean Smith, who was a 3rd round pick(and projected as a possible late first rounder). This team will get 8 wins and make it to a bowl game but mainly because they are in a weak Mountain-West conference and will not even be a top 40 team, let alone #18.
Underrated
#7 Virginia Tech: I know what you're thinking, "How can a team ranked #7 be underrated?". Well, for those of you who haven't read my preview for the Hokies this season, I predicted for Tech to go undefeated in the regular season and end up in the national title game. Virginia Tech is stacked and doesn't really have question marks at any position which I can't say about a lot of the teams ahead of them(Ohio State: replacing LB James Lauranitis, CB Malcolm Jenkins, Beanie Wells, and their top two WR's, Alabama: see earlier mention, USC: who's the QB?, Oklahoma: replacing 4 starters on the offensive line).
#23 Notre Dame: I think that they're at the right spot if I were picking teams only based on how good I think they are but I'm also picking the teams based on where I think they will finish(hence why I don't place Penn State in the overrated section). Notre Dame's schedule is extremely easy. There are 8 should-wins on that schedule and that's not even including a game at Stanford(who didn't make a bowl last year). The Irish will get 9 or 10 wins, make it to a BCS bowl game that they don't belong in and get throttled by a much better team.
UR South Florida: South Florida is the most talented team in the Big East which is down this year. They have the best offensive player(QB Matt Grothe) and the best defensive player(George Selvie) in the conference. New DC Joe Tresey, who filled the same position at Cincinatti last year, will help this defense create more turnovers with the help of Selvie and 4 star recruit DE Ryne Giddens getting pressure on opposing QBs. USF will get 9 or 10 wins next year and who that they deserve to be in the top 25.
UR Michigan State: OK, yes the Spartans lose QB Brian Hoyer and RB Javon Ringer but both positions could actually be better in 2009. Whoever wins the QB battle(either Kirk Cousins or Keith Nichol) will have experience in the offense and should be solid passing the ball while adding an element that Hoyer didn't have, the ability to run the ball(in fact HC Mark D'Antonio is considering adding some option to the playbook. The 4 player stable of backs should be able to improve upon Ringers rather pedestrian 4.2 ypc last year. The defense will be loaded, led by LB Greg Jones who is the preseason Big Ten Defensive POY. The secondary will be fantastic and the line will be rock solid, led by star DE Trevor Anderson.
Other Underrated Teams: Clemson, Miami(Fl), Kansas, Illinois, NC State
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