Game Picks September 27th

#9 Miami(Fl) at #11 Virginia Tech
The Hokies run defense has just been awful in the early portion of this season(107th in the nation). If running backs Graig Cooper and Javarris James can get going for the 'Canes, it'll make it that much tougher to stop Miami's passing game which is on fire behind emerging Heisman candidate QB Jacory Harris. I think the Hurricanes are clearly the better team at this point and they go up to hostile Lane Stadium and get a statement win, 35-17.

Iowa at #5 Penn State
This is going to be a "White Out" in Happy Valley(no one quite pulls it off like Penn State)which will add to an already hostile environment. You'd think that Iowa has struggled in games at State College. You would be wrong. Iowa coach Kirk Farentz is 6-1 against Penn State, including 3-1 in Happy Valley. The Penn State linebacking corp is banged up with 2 key losses including Sean Lee and Iowa's defense is playing great right now(allowed just 253 yards to Arizona last week, including just 105 passing yards. I think Farentz improves his record to 4-1 in Happy Valley and the Hawkeyes win 20-17.

Arkansas at #3 Alabama
Hogs QB Ryan Mallet leads the nation is passing efficiency, however he cooled down considerably late in last weeks loss at home to Georgia and is facing a Crimson Tide defense that is vastly superior to anything he's seen so far. 'Bama's running game will have be strong led by RB's Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson which will open things up for QB Greg McElroy. Expect Alabama WR Julio Jones to have a monster day with something along the lines of 8 catches for 120 yards and 2 TDs. The Crimson Tide roll 38-17.

#6 Cal at Oregon
Autzen Stadium is one of the toughest places to go in and get a win. However, Oregon's pathetic offense(104th in the nation)will make it much easier as the Ducks will struggle to score points especially against Cal's excellent defense. RB Jahvid Best will strengthen his Heisman resume, QB Kevin Riley will be efficient, and the Golden Bears win easily 31-17.

#15 TCU at Clemson
This is a matchup between two of the country's best defenses along with 3 of the country's best defensive ends(Jerry Hughes for TCU and Ricky Sapp and Daquan Bowers bookending for the Tigers). The Horned Frogs have a steady QB in Andy Dalton while Clemson QB Kyle Parker has struggled. However, I think that CJ Spiller will still make his usual 5 electric plays and that, along with having the best home field advantage in the ACC, will help the Tigers pull off the upset 17-13.

Texas Tech at #17 Houston
Texas Tech's defense looked strong last week in Austin as the Red Raiders forced Colt McCoy into 2 interceptions. Despite that, this should be a high scoring affair and duel between QB's Taylor Potts and Case Keenum. Keenum has already outdueled Oklahoma State QB Zac Robinson this season and I think he goes to 2-0 in QB duels against Potts in the biggest home game for Houston in 18 years. The Red Raiders will have the lead at halftime but the Cougars offense will explode in the second half and Keenum will lead a late TD drive. Houston wins 45-42.

#22 North Carolina at Georgia Tech
The Yellow Jackets have to be thinking revenge after falling to the Tar Heels 28-7 last year in Chapel Hill. Tech has had 9 days off since being blown out in south beach by Miami(Fl) and will be trying to fix their offensive woes after struggling on consecutive Thursday nights against Clemson and Miami(Fl). North Carolina's defense has been flat-out dominant allowing just 11 points a game through their first three games led by LB Quan Sturdivant, who led the NCAA in solo tackles last year with 87. QB TJ Yates will make plays when he needs to and North Carolina picks up a win in Atlanta 24-18.

Ole Miss vs. South Carolina is a Must Win for the Rebels

If Ole Miss wants to have any chance of winning the national championship, they need to beat South Carolina on Thursday night. The Rebs are currently 4th in the nation and could theoretically lose to the Gamecocks but end up in the SEC Championship Game and beat Florida on their way to the title game. I would usually tend to agree with that, but this is a nationally televised game. Remember last year when USC lost at Oregon State on a Thursday night in September on national television? They basically lost all hope of reaching the championship game after that. And that is USC, who is recognized as a perennial national championship contender. This is Ole Miss. Their current ranking at 4th is their highest in something along the lines of 30 years. This will be no simple task as South Carolina boasts a raucous crowd(which means drunk in SEC country), a stingy defense, and an offense that suddenly seems potent after putting up 37 between the hedges led by QB Stephen Garcia. However, Houston Nutt is one of the best big game coaches in the entire country, not just the SEC. I think South Carolina keeps it close in the first half and maybe even has a lead entering the second half but I think Jevan Snead will have a huge game and Houston Nutt will open up his seemingly endless bag of tricks. After Ole Miss gets up, the pressure applied by DE Greg Hardy will make it difficult for the Gamecocks to come back so I think the Rebels win this one 34-21 in a game that will be closer than the score will indicate.

Washington is Ranked 24 in the AP Poll

Wow. That's all I can say in response to that. Yes, Washington beat number 3 USC yesterday but I still don't believe that should warrant an appearance in the Top 25. They beat a USC team starting their backup QB and was the benefactor of many fumble recoveries. Is there anyone who would be willing to say that the Huskies would beat Georgia Tech, Clemson, UCLA, Nebraska, or even Notre Dame? I could keep going but you get my point. Washington's win over the Trojans was nice, but c'mon they aren't the 24th best team in America.

Updated BCS Projections

BCS National Championship Game
Texas over California

Rose Bowl
USC over Michigan

Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma over Notre Dame

Sugar Bowl
Florida over Boise State

Orange Bowl
North Carolina over Cincinnati

Top 5 Potential Upsets Week 3

1. Washington(+19) over USC
USC is on a high after coming back to steal one at the Horshoe last week. But they are going to be without starting QB Matt Barkley and QB Jake Locker is arguably the most underrated player in the country for the Huskies. HC Steve Sarkisian was the OC for the Trojans last year which may help him in his gameplan.

2. Wyoming(+7) over Colorado
Wyoming actually led Texas 10-7 near the end of the first half last week before eventually succumbing to the Longhorns superior talent. More importantly, however, is the fact that Colorado stinks. They lost to Colorado State to open the season before being absoluted manhandled at Toledo last week.

3. Florida State(+8) over BYU
The 'Noles are a very good team and BYU might be riding a little too high after their opening victory against Oklahoma and last weeks throttling of an inferior Tulane team. Florida State almost got shocked by Jacksonville State last weekend but only after they were depleted physically and mentally after losing a heartbreaker to their rival Miami(Fl) just 5 days earlier. FSU has a strong offense led by rock solid QB Christian Ponder and an above average offensive line. The defense is young but DC Mickey Andrews calls it the fastest defense he's ever had(he's coached Deion Sanders, Derrick Brooks, and Terrell Suggs).

4. Minnesota(+14) over California
Cal has been vulnerable in road games out of the Pacific Time Zone recently and the Golden Gophers should be pumped to play in this game in which they are opening their new on-campus stadium. QB Adam Weber and WR Eric Decker form the best QB-WR combination in the Big Ten.

5. Arizona(+4) over Iowa
I would be much more wary of this for Arizona if this game wasn't a 3:30(ET) kickoff. Arizona has a very good defense(they shut down Central Michigan QB Dan Lefevour, who is one of the best in the country, and just helped orchestrate an upset over one of the Big Ten favorites in Michgan State). Iowa also needed not one, but two blocked field goals in the waning seconds to beat FCS(1-AA) Northern Iowa.

Updated BCS Projections

Every week throughout the season, I will be updating my projections for the BCS bowls.

BCS National Championship Game
Texas over BYU

Rose Bowl
Cal over Michigan

Fiesta Bowl
USC over Oklahoma State

Sugar Bowl
Florida over Notre Dame

Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech over South Florida

BYU Rises to Number 9 in the AP Poll

This is the year. This is the year, my friends. A non-BCS conference team is going to play for the national championship. BYU rising to no. 9 shows that it's going to be possible for them to climb up to number 2 in the polls by the end of the year. Unlike other possible BCS busters in the past, BYU has the schedule to do this and beating Oklahoma was the signature win that they're going to need to be able to make their case late in the year. BYU still has three ranked teams left on the schedule in Florida State, TCU, and Utah(although I don't think the Utes will be ranked by the time the two meet in Provo later this year)and get them all at home. If the Cougars just take care of their business(BYU will be favored in all of their games this year) they will become the first non-BCS team to play in the BCS Championship Game.

And by the way, I think all non-BCS teams should thank Oklahoma as they've done just about as much for them as anyone has.

Things We Learned from College Football's Opening Weekend(so far)

1. Michigan is going to win the Big Ten. Call it a kneejerk reaction but what I saw on Saturday was a team that played inspired. The defense completely stifled QB Tim Hiller who has been projected to be drafted as high as the 2nd round in next April's draft. Rich Rodriguez finally has the players to fit his scheme with Tate Forcier at the helm and Denard Robinson to come in and bring some explosiveness to the offense. Rich-Rod has had a track record of having successful second seasons after disappointing first seasons(3-8 his first year at West Virginia and 9-4 his second). Michigan's conference schedule sets up very nicely as the Wolverines get Big Ten favorites Penn State and Ohio State both in The Big House. Also, if yesterday was any indication, their competition shouldn't be too stiff.

2. Oklahoma isn't going to win the Big 12. Even if Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford's shoulder injury only keeps him out of a couple meaningless games, Oklahoma showed on Saturday that they weren't the same offense as they were a year ago. The offensive line was sloppy with 3 penalties on the first series alone. They only scored 10 points in the first half(when they had Bradford)and 7 of them came after BYU fumbled a punt in their territory leaving the Sooners with only 35 yards to go for a touchdown. All that combined with the fact that the Big 12 South looks REALLY good this year(Oklahoma State and Baylor both look to be be much improved over last year), they draw both Big 12 North favorites Kansas and Nebraska(on the road nonetheless), and the fact that Texas is still around and all that spells a season in which the Sooners will not win the Big 12 for the first time since 2005.

3. The Pac-10 is going to be a two-horse race. No disrespect to Oregon State, but the two best teams in the Pac-10 are clearly USC and Cal. Everyone knows about USC's talent but Cal is now ready to contend with the Trojans for Pac-10 supremacy. The Golden Bears dismantled a solid Maryland team from the ACC 52-13 in a game that QB Kevin Riley quieted his doubters in with 4 TDs and no INT's. Some thought that Oregon might challenge for a Pac-10 title this year but the Ducks showed that they clearly are not ready to against Boise State as they just looked like a team in complete disarray. It looks like the Pac-10 race will come down to an October 3rd matchup between the Trojans and Golden Bears in Berkeley.

NFL Playoff Projections

Wild Card Weekend
NFC
3 Panthers(10-6) over 6 Cowboys(10-6)
4 Seahawks(10-6) over 5 Vikings(10-6)
AFC
3 Patriots(12-4) over 6 Bengals(10-6)
5 Titans(11-5) over 4 Steelers(11-5)

Divisional Playoffs
NFC
3 Panthers(10-6) over 2 Giants(11-5)
1 Packers(12-4) over 4 Seahawks(10-6)
AFC
3 Patriots(12-4) over 2 Colts(12-4)
1 Chargers(12-4) over 5 Titans(11-5)

Conference Championships
NFC
3 Panthers(10-6) over 1 Packers(12-4)
1 Chargers(12-4) over 3 Patriots(12-4)

Super Bowl
Panthers over Chargers

Game Picks Week 1 September 5th-7th

Georgia at Oklahoma State(-5)
The key to this game will be how well Georgia's defense plays early because UGA can't afford to fall too far behind and lose the ability to run the ball. The Dawgs boast a strong D led by LB Rennie Curran but will they be able to contain a Cowboy offense that is led by the best triplets in America with dual-threat QB Zac Robinson, All-American RB Kendall Hunter, and the best WR in the country, Dez Bryant(not to mention the best LT in the country, Russell Okung). I expect Georgia to play well early and contain the Okie State offense enough to keep themselves in the game and go into halftime with the lead. However, I don't think the Dawgs can contain the Cowboys explosive offense for 4 quarters and I think Oklahoma State's defense led by new DC Bill Young(how has he not gotten a head coaching job?!) will make some key stops and the Cowboys will prevail 35-26.

Virginia Tech vs. Alabama(-7) @ Georgia Dome
Expect both teams to spend a lot of time in the ice baths on Sunday because there's going to be a lot of hard hitting in this southern slugfest. Both the Crimson Tide and the Hokies boast dominant defenses so don't expect this to be a high scoring affair. I actually think that there will be more points scored by defense and special teams than by the two offenses. The key to this game will be the two quarterbacks, Tyrod Taylor and Greg McElroy. Whichever one of these two is able to avoid costly mistakes(which is a lot harder to do with Javier Arenas and Stephan Virgil in the opposing defensive backfields) and is able to manufacture a touchdown drive will be the victor. Unfortunately for 'Bama, I don't think that their revamped offensive line will be able to hold up against Virginia Tech's front seven to keep the pressure off of McElroy or to make any running lanes for Mark Ingram and Co. I think Hokie DE Jason Worilds will splash onto the national scene and collect 2 or 3 sacks and also get pressure on McElroy to speed up some throws and force him into some turnovers. Tyrod Taylor's mobility will help him and he will somehow manufacture a scoring drive and the Hokies will take it 13-6.

Miami(Fl) at Florida State(-6 1/2)
The 'Noles and 'Canes will renew their storied rivalry on Monday night in Tallahassee with a raucous Florida State crowd. Florida State dominated Miami(Fl) last year in a game that wasn't as close as the final score would indicate and has one of the best O-lines in the ACC this year. The QB play for both teams should be strong with dual-threats Christian Ponder(FSU) and Jacory Harris(Miami) at the helm. Linebacker Sean Spence leads a very strong Hurricane defense that will go against a fast Florida State defense that should be still stout despite losing DE Everette Brown and S Myron Rolle. I think the crowd will be the difference in a game that I predict Christian Ponder will lead a late 4th quarter comeback for Seminoles and Florida State will prevail over the Hurricanes 27-24 in what I expect to be the best game of the weekend.

Upset Pick(s) of the Week
Central Michigan(+13 1/2) over Arizona
Louisiana Tech(+14) over Auburn

5 Potential Upsets on College Football's Opening Weekend

1. BYU(+22 1/2) vs. Oklahoma (@New Texas Stadium)
See reasons stated in previous blog

2. Western Michigan(+13) at Michigan
Michigan has lost at home to Toledo and Appalachian State in the past two years, respectively and Western Michigan QB Tim Hiller is a flat out stud who could be an early draft pick.

3. Nevada(+14 1/2) at Notre Dame
Notre Dame better not get caught looking ahead to next week's matchup at The Big House because Nevada is a team that could possibly get double digit wins this year led by superstar QB Colin Capernick, who may be the most underrated player in the country.

4. Louisiana Tech(+14) at Auburn
Louisiana Tech actually had a better season than Auburn did as they made a bowl while the Tigers had to settle for a losing season. Tech has experience beating SEC opponents as they won at Mississippi State last year(while managing to put up 19 more points than the pathetic 3 Auburn scored last year against Mississippi State).

5. Central Michigan(+13 1/2) at Arizona
Arizona made a bowl game last year but lost starting QB Willie Tuitama to graduation. Central Michigan could potentially reach double digit wins this year behnd QB Dan Lefevour who might be the best dual-threat at the quarterback position north of Gainesville.

An Injury That Can Change the National Title Picture

Why is no one talking about the loss of Oklahoma TE Jermaine Gresham for Saturday's game against BYU in Dallas? Gresham is easily the best tight end in the country and the only proven pass catching option for Heisman trophy winning QB Sam Bradford. Oklahoma will already be breaking in 4 new starters on the offensive line and 2 new starters at WR. BYU's offense has some star power with senior QB Max Hall, RB Harvey Unga, and TE Dennis Pitta(VERY underrated pass catcher) so the Sooners are gonna have to score if they want to win. This game has HUGE national title implications because whatever team wins could very well be on their way to the championship game(although BYU will have to go undefeated for that happend). I still think Oklahoma will pull out a win but the loss of Gresham makes it a LOT shakier for the Sooners.

Game Picks Thursday September 3rd

COLLEGE FOOTBALL IS BACK MY FRIENDS!

We start out with two great games to start the season with NC State hosting South Carolina and in the late game, we have a top 16 matchup pitting #14 Oregon and #16 Boise State in what could be the biggest home game in the history of the Blue Turf.

South Carolina at NC State(-5)
This is a classic matchup between a great NC State offense led by All-ACC QB Russell Wilson against a very stout South Carolina defense. The key to this game will be whether or not South Carolina QB Stephen Garcia will be able to take advantage of the holes in the Wolfpack secondary. I think the Gamecock defense will keep Spurrier's team in the game and that they will even have a lead in the 4th quarter but at the end of the day I think Russell Wilson will be too much and the Wolfpack will pull out a nailbiter 24-21.

Oregon at Boise State(-3 1/2)
This is a game between two teams that had double digit wins in 2008. Jeremiah Masoli for the Ducks and Kellen Moore for the Broncos are both stars at the QB position and they have excellent skill position players to distribute the ball to. This is a HUGE game for Boise State because if they win they'll be well on their way to an undefeated regular season and a return to the BCS. I think Oregon is very overrated(as state in my blog about the preseason top 25) with a new coach and a lot of new faces along the offensive line(including 2nd round pick Max Unger and defense(two 2nd round draft picks lost in the secondary). I expect Boise State to dominate this game in blowout fashion in the start of what could be an undefeated season, 45-20.