My Thoughts on the USA Today Preseason Top 25

Overrated
#5 Alabama: The Tide are definitely a top 25 team but I think more in the range of 10-17. 'Bama boasts a top 5 defense led by massive NT Terrance "Mount" Cody, LB Rolando McClain, and CB Javier Arenas but the offense will not be as consistent as it was in 2008. Last year, the Crimson Tide had arguably the best offensive line in the country but they lose three starters including All-Americans at the two most important O-line positions, left tackle(Andre Smith) and center(Antoine Caldwell). Remember how they played in the bowl game against Utah just without Smith? They allowed 8 sacks, which was as many as they had allowed the previous 7 games combined, to a Utah team that came in with only 21 sacks on the season. Also replacing senior John Parker Wilson at QB will be hard. The numbers may go up with Greg McElroy as far as yards and touchdowns are concerned but his inexperience combined with inexperienced protection will equal more interceptions than Wilson threw last year(8).

#14 Oregon: This Oregon Ducks team is not a top 25 team. In fact, I see them more as a borderline top 40 team. The skill positions are strong with QB Jeremiah Masoli, RB LeGarrette Blount, and TE Ed Dickson but they return just one starter along the offensive and defensive lines. The secondary loses both Patrick Chung and Jarius Byrd to the NFL. However, the biggest loss for the Ducks will be long time head coach Mike Belotti to retirement. Former OC Chip Kelly is well-qualified but unproven.

#18 Utah: I do not understand why the Utes are in the preseason top 25 at all. They return only three starters on the offense and have to replace QB Brian Johnson. A defense that produced only 29 sacks(and 8 of them came against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl when the Tide were without starting LT Andre Smith)has to replace DE Paul Kruger, who was a 2nd round pick(and projected as a possible late first rounder), and both starting cornerbacks including Sean Smith, who was a 3rd round pick(and projected as a possible late first rounder). This team will get 8 wins and make it to a bowl game but mainly because they are in a weak Mountain-West conference and will not even be a top 40 team, let alone #18.


Underrated
#7 Virginia Tech: I know what you're thinking, "How can a team ranked #7 be underrated?". Well, for those of you who haven't read my preview for the Hokies this season, I predicted for Tech to go undefeated in the regular season and end up in the national title game. Virginia Tech is stacked and doesn't really have question marks at any position which I can't say about a lot of the teams ahead of them(Ohio State: replacing LB James Lauranitis, CB Malcolm Jenkins, Beanie Wells, and their top two WR's, Alabama: see earlier mention, USC: who's the QB?, Oklahoma: replacing 4 starters on the offensive line).

#23 Notre Dame: I think that they're at the right spot if I were picking teams only based on how good I think they are but I'm also picking the teams based on where I think they will finish(hence why I don't place Penn State in the overrated section). Notre Dame's schedule is extremely easy. There are 8 should-wins on that schedule and that's not even including a game at Stanford(who didn't make a bowl last year). The Irish will get 9 or 10 wins, make it to a BCS bowl game that they don't belong in and get throttled by a much better team.

UR South Florida: South Florida is the most talented team in the Big East which is down this year. They have the best offensive player(QB Matt Grothe) and the best defensive player(George Selvie) in the conference. New DC Joe Tresey, who filled the same position at Cincinatti last year, will help this defense create more turnovers with the help of Selvie and 4 star recruit DE Ryne Giddens getting pressure on opposing QBs. USF will get 9 or 10 wins next year and who that they deserve to be in the top 25.

UR Michigan State: OK, yes the Spartans lose QB Brian Hoyer and RB Javon Ringer but both positions could actually be better in 2009. Whoever wins the QB battle(either Kirk Cousins or Keith Nichol) will have experience in the offense and should be solid passing the ball while adding an element that Hoyer didn't have, the ability to run the ball(in fact HC Mark D'Antonio is considering adding some option to the playbook. The 4 player stable of backs should be able to improve upon Ringers rather pedestrian 4.2 ypc last year. The defense will be loaded, led by LB Greg Jones who is the preseason Big Ten Defensive POY. The secondary will be fantastic and the line will be rock solid, led by star DE Trevor Anderson.

Other Underrated Teams: Clemson, Miami(Fl), Kansas, Illinois, NC State