NFL Teams on the Decline

Miami Dolphins-Last year, the Fins went 11-5 and won the AFC East. However, a lot of things went their way for that to happen. They remained extremely healthy(just 8 players ended the season on IR)which can't be expected to happen again. The Patriots had a down year(11-5 which is down for them)with Tom Brady being out for the year. Brady is healthy and ready to go in 2009 and so are the Patriots. Miami feasted on a weak schedule last year as they faced arguably the two worst divisions in the NFL in the AFC and NFC West while this year they face arguably the two best divisions in the NFL in the AFC and NFC South. The Dolphins tied for the fewest giveaways last season(13) and led the league in turnover ratio(+17) by 4. That's going to change at least a little bit in 2009. That'll be a big difference in close games which they thrived in last year(7-2 in games decided by 7 points or less). I'm predicting the Fins will end up with a win total closer to their win total in 2007 than in 2008.

Arizona Cardinals-Arizona was last years Cinderella after reaching the Super Bowl thanks to a magical playoff run. However, what people tend to forget is that the Cardinals finished the season just 9-7 and made the playoffs mainly because their division was a joke. The Cardinals beat only 1 team that made the playoffs last year and that was the Dolphins before the "Wildcat" offense surfaced. In fact Arizona was outscored 284 to 154 in 8 games(2-6) against teams with winning records last year. The Cards feasted on their division, the NFC West. They went a whopping 6-0 in divisional games last year and they needed to because if they had lost one of their games against the 49ers they wouldn't have made the playoffs. I expect Arizona to lose at least 2 games within the division next year as the 49ers should be improved under Mike Singletary and the Seahawks will be much better for reasons I stated in my "NFL Teams on the Rise" blog. I'm going to predict that the Arizona Cardinals will have a losing season and not make the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers-The Buccaneers started out 2008 9-3 and seemed like a lock for the playoffs. However, with 4 games remaining and needing to win just one of them the defense fell apart down the stretch and the Bucs lost the final four games of the season and missed out on the playoffs. That resulted in the firing of former Super Bowl winning HC Jon Gruden and not resigning starting QB Jeff Garcia. They also lost longtime defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin when he left to join his son at the University of Tennessee and released a lot of veterans, most notably LB Derrick Brooks and RB Warrick Dunn. That being said, I actually like this team a lot more than most do. They have one of the best offensive lines in football and that combined with one of the better stable of running backs should mean a very productive running game. Whoever wins the QB battle(Luke McCown, Byron Leftwich, Josh Freeman)will be solid thanks to the aforementioned strong running game and a solid receiving corp led by Antonio Bryant and Kellen Winslow Jr. The defense won't be as good as it was for the first 12 games of 2008 but it also won't be as bad as it was for the final 4. Unfortunately, Tampa Bay faces an absolutely brutal schedule as they face just two teams that had losing seasons in 2008 and one of them(Green Bay) is being picked by many(including myself)to have a big turnaround in 2009. That combined with the uncertainty of leadership with their head coach, Raheem Morris, leads me to think that Tampa Bay will be good but lose a lot of close games in 2009 and end up with a Top 5 pick in the NFL draft next April.