AFC East
New England Patriots: 6-3 1st Place AFC East; End of the Year: 12-4 1st Place AFC East
The Pats are back. The offense is finally back in sync which means one thing for the rest of the NFL: Look out! The defense is slightly above average and makes plays when they need to. They've lost twice on the road against two defenses that were playing out of their minds at the time that they played them back when the offense wasn't quite back in full sync after Tom Brady's return from the devastating knee injury. Looking at their schedule, they could very realistically not lose a game the rest of the year. However, I don't think that'll be the case as the NFL is just so difficult that I imagine they'll drop one somewhere down the road.
Key Games: Nov. 30 @New Orleans, Dec. 6 @Miami, Dec. 27 Jacksonville
Miami Dolphins: 4-5 T-2nd Place AFC East; End of the Year: 7-9 2nd Place AFC East
It looks like Miami should've made the switch to Chad Henne before the season started and not have waited for Chad Pennington to make his seemingly biannual trip to the IR. The 'Fins started out 0-3, but have gone 4-2 since Chad Henne became the starting quarterback. He's helped them develop more of a passing threat than when Old Chad was the starter. As was the case last year, the Dolphins are one of the most physical teams in the league and their ability to run the ball keeps them in every game. Now they have the quarterback going forward to win some of the games they couldn't with Chad Pennington as the starter. While I think this is going to be one of the contending teams in the NFL going forward, the Dolphins schedule going forward is just too brutal for me to see them making the type of run needed to make a playoff run.
Key Games: Nov. 19 @Carolina, Dec. 6 New England, Dec. 13 @Jacksonville, Dec. 27 Houston
New York Jets: 4-5 T-2nd Place AFC East; End of the Year: 4-12 4th Place AFC East
It's amazing how quickly things can change in the NFL. 3 weeks in, the J-E-T-S Jets were 3-0 and coming off of two huge wins against New England and Tennessee with their suffocating defense. Rookie Mark Sanchez was the best quarterback for the Jets since Broadway Joe and Rex Ryan was Coach of the Year. Now Gang Green is 4-5, Mark Sanchez has clearly hit a wall and the defense is just slightly above average and doesn't have nearly the same swagger as it once did. Looking at the way their schedule sets up, I don't think that they get another win this year and Rex Ryan is going to learn that the New York media isn't as kind when you aren't winning.
Key Games: Nov. 22 @New England, Dec. 3 @Buffalo, Dec. 27 @Indy
Buffalo Bills: 3-6 4th Place AFC East; End of the Year: 5-11 3rd Place AFC East
There is going to be lots of change in western New York this offseason. QB Trent Edwards hasn't made the type of progress that you would like to see if you're Ralph Wilson and the same can be said about head coach Dick Jauron. Of course, not all the problems on offense can be attributed to Edwards as this team is extremely young on the offensive line and the line has struggled as you might expect. But he still does not look like the type of quarterback that you'd want to build your franchise around going forward. And the fact that the team is in the exact same place as it was when Jauron got here 4 years ago can be put on Jauron. On a positive note, it looks like rookie safety Jairus Byrd is the real deal as he's gotten an INT in 5 straight games and is tied for the league lead.
Key Games: None
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts: 9-0 1st Place AFC South; End of the Year: 14-2 1st Place AFC South
There's not a whole lot that can be said here that hasn't been said about the Colts in the past 8 years or so. Peyton Manning is amazing and is carrying the team. The defense isn't great but makes plays when it needs to and has the best pair of pass rushing bookends in the league with Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. And Bob Sanders is out for the year. Same old story with the Colts. The only difference is that Marvin Harrison and Tony Dungy are gone.
Key Games: Nov. 22 @Baltimore, Nov. 29 @Houston, Dec. 13 Denver, Dec. 17 @Jacksonville
Jacksonville Jaguars: 5-4 T-2nd Place AFC South; End of the Year: 10-6 T-2nd Place AFC South
These aren't the Jaguars in the mold that we've come to know them. These Jags are built on offense, not defense. This team is built on Maurice Jones-Drew pounding the rock 20-25 times a game and David Garrard throwing for big numbers(he's a top 10 fantasty qb for the 2nd straight year for those who weren't aware). Do I think this team is really as good as I think that their record will be at the end of the year? No. But the fact is that they have the type of schedule that they should win 5 of their last 7 games. This team reminds me a lot of the 2007 Browns that went 10-6 behind Pro Bowl quarterback Derek Anderson(yes, Derek Anderson was a Pro Bowl quarterback)(No, I'm not kidding!)(Seriously, I'm not kidding!).
Key Games: Nov. 29 @San Francisco, Dec. 6 Houston, Dec. 13 Miami, Jan. 3 @Cleveland
Houston Texans: 5-4 T-2nd Place AFC South; End of the Year: 10-6 T-2nd Place AFC South
Could this finally be the year the Texans break through and make it to the playoffs? This is clearly the best team they've ever had but at times it seems like the same old Texans. At Arizona, down 21-0, Houston comes back to tie the game and has the ball. Matt Schaub throws a pick six. They show resiliancy and drive the ball to the Arizona 1 yard line. They get stuffed. At Indy, they got absolutely dominated in the first half. They came back and actually had a 43 yard field goal to tie the game. Kris Brown missed it as time expired and Houston loses again. At what point does this team's resiliancy either come through and help them win? At some point I have to imagine that this team's gonna stop believing that they can win if they can't pull those type of games out. I think they learn to win and they have the type of schedule that sets up nicely for a playoff run.
Key Games: Nov. 23 Tennessee, Nov. 29 Indy, Dec. 6 @Jacksonville, Jan. 3 New England
Tennessee: 3-6 4th Place AFC South; End of the Year: 7-9 4th Place AFC South
It's too late for a playoff run this year but this is the type of team that can ruin someone else's season. Chris Johnson is the best running back in the league right now and I don't think that can be argued. Vince Young doesn't kill the stat sheet but he's a winner. The secondary has begun to play better after being absolutely awful in the earlier stages of the year and the rest of the defense is good. Unfortunately, this is going to be a team that's theme of the year will be too little too late after losing their first 6.
Key Games: None
AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals: 7-2 1st Place AFC North; End of the Year: 12-4 1st Place AFC North
Think about this: If not for a miracle play and what some consider the worst call of the year, the Bengals would be tied with the Colts for having the best record in the AFC. This team is for real. They swept Pittsburgh and Baltimore, widely considered the two favorites in that division. They have an agressive, attacking style defense to go along with an offense built around a power running game behind Cedric Benson along with Bernard Scott and now Larry Johnson to compliment him. Carson Palmer has returned to form as has the ever quirky but also ever talented Chad Ochocinco. We need to start talking about this team as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. If they can take advantage of the schedule that they have down the stretch, this is a team that can earn a first round bye.
Key Games: Nov. 29 Cleveland, Dec. 13 @Minnesota, Dec. 20 @San Diego
Pittsburgh Steelers: 6-3 2nd Place AFC North; End of the Year: 11-5 2nd Place AFC North
This team isn't going to win the division. The Cincinnati Bengals are but let's not get crazy. This is still clearly one of the main contenders to win the Super Bowl. And it should be noted that the last time the Bengals won the division, 2005, Pittsburgh went into Cincinnati and won a playoff game en route to a magical run to a Super Bowl title. This team has found a running game behind Rashard Mendenhall and Big Ben has never been better in part because he's never had a better receiving corp. Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward, and now Mike Wallace are all dangerous wide receivers and Heath Miller is one of the better tight ends in the league. The defense is still very stout behind Dick LeBeau especially now that Troy Polamalu is back. They don't have an insanely difficult schedule the rest of the way but they should drop one before they more than likely rest all of their starters in what should be a meaningless game at Miami in Week 17.
Key Games: Nov. 29 @Baltimore, Dec. 10 @Cleveland, Dec. 20 Green Bay, Dec. 27 Baltimore
Baltimore Ravens: 4-4 3rd Place AFC North; End of the Year: 7-9 3rd Place AFC North
These aren't the Ravens that we've come to know and love. These Ravens aren't built on defense and power running. These Ravens are built off of the strong arm of Joe Flacco and the playmaking ability of Ray Rice. Last year, they were the most run oriented team in the NFL and this year they are the 9th most pass oriented team in the league. That's part of what's wrong with the defense. They aren't burning enough clock and the D is getting tired. Also, the defense clearly misses departed defensive coordinator Rex Ryan because they simply aren't the same defense. Ray Lewis still talks a big game but he hasn't really played a big game this year other than on a key tackle on 4th and 2 at San Diego. They aren't getting the same type of pressure as they did last year and it shows(they are allowing 4 more points a game than they did last year). The schedule down the stretch is brutal and I expect the team that played in the AFC championship game last year to have a losing season.
Key Games: Nov. 22 Indy, Nov. 29 Pittsburgh, Dec. 7 @Green Bay, Dec. 27 @Pittsburgh
Cleveland Browns: 1-7 4th Place AFC North; End of the Year: 2-14 4th Place AFC North
The Browns are awful. I'll take the same approach as I did with all of the horrible teams in the NFL. Josh Cribbs is the best special teamer in the NFL. Shaun Rogers is one of the best kick blockers in the league.
Key Games: None
AFC West
Denver Broncos: 6-3 T-1st Place AFC West; End of the Year: 9-7 2nd Place AFC West
I can't say that I'm surprised that the Broncos' defense has fallen back to earth. It simply was playing way too far over it's head to continue to play as fantastic as it had. However, to see the defense fall this hard has been a surprise. The same defense that was literally impregnable in the 2nd half of games for the first 6 weeks of the season now has allowed 58 2nd half points over the past 3 games. I still believe that Josh McDaniels made a huge mistake when he traded away Jay Cutler for Kyle Orton and draft picks. Orton has been solid, but Jay Cutler is a playmaker and can stretch the field. Now, Orton's going to be out with next week's HUGE game against the Chargers. All of that and a difficult schedule down the stretch and that leads me to believe that the team that started 6-0 will end up watching the playoffs on TV.
Key Games: Nov. 22 San Diego, Nov. 26 Giants, Dec. 13 @Indy
San Diego Chargers: 6-3 T-1st Place AFC West; End of the Year: 12-4 1st Place AFC West
This team is finally beginning to turn it on. LT is showing shades of the LT of old, Shawne Merriman looks like he has finally returned to full health, and Vincent Jackson has emerged as a legitimate top 15 wide receiver. There's a reason that this team is considered one of the most talented in the league and they are beginning to show it. Once center Nick Hardwick returns to the lineup, the offense is only going to get that much better. The schedule down the stretch is not brutal by any means and could make their game on December 20th against Cincinnati extremely crucial towards determining which team gets a first round bye in the AFC playoffs.
Key Games: Nov. 22 @Denver, Dec. 13 @Dallas, Dec. 20 Cincinnati
Kansas City Chiefs: 2-7 T-3rd Place AFC West; 3-13 T-3rd Place AFC West
I'll be taking the same approach that I took with all the awful teams. Jamaal Charles had a nice game against the Raiders so it looks like the combination of Charles and Kolby Smith forms a solid backfield.
Key Games: None
Oakland Raiders: 2-7 T-3rd Place AFC West; 3-13 T-3rd Place AFC West
The Raiders have an excellent backfield with Michael Bush, Darren McFadden, and Justin Fargas. They also have the best corner in the league with Nnamdi Asomuagh.
Key Games: None
AFC Playoff Predicted Standings:
Division Winners
1. Indianapolis Colts(14-2)
2. San Diego Chargers(12-4)
3. Cincinnati Bengals(12-4)
4. New England Patriots(12-4)
Wild Cards
5. Pittsburgh Steelers(11-5)
6. Houston Texans(10-6)*
Just Out
7. Jacksonville Jaguars(10-6)
8. Denver Broncos(9-7)
*Texans reach playoffs based off of tiebreaker
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